Experts, including Kelly, express concerns that an Israeli attack on Iran could escalate nuclear proliferation. This includes both horizontal proliferation, where existing nuclear states enhance their arsenals, and vertical proliferation, where non-nuclear states pursue nuclear capabilities. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) warns that a new arms race could emerge, marked by increased risks and uncertainties. SIPRI Director Dan Smith noted that both the U.S. and Russia are modernizing their nuclear arsenals, while China leads in warhead production. Additionally, India and Pakistan have developed new military systems, with tensions escalating between the two nations.
Kelly points out that Iran is likely to resume its nuclear ambitions post-conflict, potentially igniting a “cascade” effect of other nations seeking nuclear weapons. Such developments would heighten anxiety in Israel, which is believed to possess about 90 nuclear weapons without official acknowledgment. A nuclear-capable Iran would alarm Israel and regional Sunni adversaries like Saudi Arabia. Although not a nuclear power, Saudi officials have indicated they might pursue nuclear weapons if Iran succeeds in its nuclear endeavors.
Furthermore, analysts suggest that North Korea may interpret Israel’s actions as justification for its own nuclear program. Decker Eveleth from CNA Corporation noted that North Korea likely views Israel’s military actions as validation for its long-standing desire to develop nuclear capabilities, underscoring the broader implications of regional conflicts on global nuclear dynamics. Overall, the current geopolitical landscape indicates a precarious trajectory toward increased nuclear tension and potential arms development across multiple nations.
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